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General election in Britain
Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer walk outside a polling station during the general election in London, Britain, July 4, 2024. REUTERS/Claudia Greco Image: Reuters/Claudia Greco
world

UK Labour on course for massive election majority, exit poll shows

51 Comments
By Andrew MacAskill, Elizabeth Piper and Alistair Smout

Keir Starmer will be Britain's next prime minister with his Labour Party set to win a massive majority in a parliamentary election, an exit poll on Thursday indicated, while Rishi Sunak's Conservatives are forecast to suffer historic losses.

The poll showed Labour would win 410 seats in the 650-seat parliament and a majority of 170, ending 14 years of Conservative-led government.

Sunak's party were forecast to only take 131 seats, down from 346 when parliament was dissolved and the worst electoral performance in its history, as voters punished them for a cost-of-living crisis, and years of instability and in-fighting which has seen five different prime ministers since 2016.

"Britain’s future was on the ballot at this election. And, if we are successful tonight, Labour will get to work immediately with our first steps for change," Pat McFadden, Labour's campaign coordinator said in statement.

The centrist Liberal Democrats were predicted to capture 61 seats while Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage's right-wing populist Reform UK was forecast to win 13.

While the forecast for Reform was far better than expected, the overall outcome suggests the disenchanted British public appears to have shifted support to the centre-left, unlike in France where Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party made historic gains in an election last Sunday.

It was not just the Conservatives whose vote was predicted to have collapsed. The pro-independence Scottish National Party was forecast to win only 10 seats, its worst showing since 2010, after a period of turmoil which has seen two leaders quit in little over a year, a police investigation into the party's finances and splits on a range of policies.

In the last six UK elections, only one exit poll has got the outcome wrong - in 2015 when the poll predicted a hung parliament when in fact the Conservatives won a majority. Official results will follow over the next few hours.

LABOUR TURNAROUND

Sunak stunned Westminster and many in his own party by calling the election earlier than he needed to in May with the Conservatives trailing Labour by some 20 points in opinion polls.

He had hoped that the gap would narrow as had traditionally been the case in British elections, but the deficit has failed to budge in a fairly disastrous campaign.

It started badly with him getting drenched by rain outside Downing Street as he announced the vote, before aides and Conservative candidates became caught up in a gambling scandal over suspicious bets placed on the date of the election.

Sunak's early departure from D-Day commemorative events in France to do a TV interview angered veterans, and even those within his own party said it raised questions about his political acumen.

If the exit poll proves right, it represents an incredible turnaround for Starmer and Labour, which critics and supporters said was facing an existential crisis just three years ago when it lost a parliamentary seat on a 16% swing to the Conservatives, an almost unique win for a governing party.

But a series of scandals - most notably revelations of parties in Downing Street during COVID lockdowns - undermined then prime minister Boris Johnson and by November 2021 the Conservative poll lead, which had been higher than at any time during Margaret Thatcher's 11 years in government, was gone.

Liz Truss' disastrous six-week premiership, which followed Johnson being forced out at the end of 2022, cemented the decline, and Sunak was unable to make any dent in Labour's now commanding poll lead

While polls have suggested that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour leader Starmer, his simple message that it was time for change appears to have resonated with voters.

However, the predicted Labour result would not quite match the record level achieved by the party under Tony Blair in 1997 when the party captured 418 seats with a majority of 179.

© (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2024.

©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.

51 Comments

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If these exit polls are right, it’s not quite as bad as some polls were predicting for the Tories. They will still have enough MPs to form a credible opposition in terms of numbers although they haven’t been credible as a party for quite a while.

A well deserved hiding.

A few drinks in order.

12 ( +13 / -1 )

Tories have been an unmitigated disaster.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Well done UK voters. People of France,UK have shown the way , US, Germany, Japan next. People have had enough.

-13 ( +2 / -15 )

Ramsey's Kitchen

Well done UK voters. People of France,UK have shown the way , US, Germany, Japan next. People have had enough.

You do realise that the UK have moved from the right to left, which is the opposite of France.

9 ( +13 / -4 )

Well done UK voters. People of France,UK have shown the way , US, Germany, Japan next. People have had enough

UK and France?

Are you saying roughly 40% of voters should vote centre-left as it looks like they they did in the UK and about a third should vote far-right as they did in France?

What a very strange post.

11 ( +13 / -2 )

A Labour wipe-out.

8 ( +8 / -0 )

I just put this here..

https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1809001893756117299/photo/1

-12 ( +0 / -12 )

Conservative losers...

LOOOOOOOOOOL

-10 ( +3 / -13 )

Are you saying roughly 40% of voters should vote centre-left as it looks like they they did in the UK

Should’ve added the LibDem and Green vote to that - both manifestos further left than Labour.

To rephrase:

Are you saying over 50% of voters should vote centre-left or left..

Sorry for the inaccuracy.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

Tories, Labour? Republicans, Democrats? They're all the same. Just swapping one devil for another.

-9 ( +4 / -13 )

Hats off to PM elect, Sir Keir Starmer. Comes across as a moderate and sensible voice of the centre.

Here's hoping this thumping election win will give a boost to the UK economy which has been struggling since the Brexit fiasco. Hopeless little boy Sunak is now in history's dustbin.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

You do realise that the UK have moved from the right to left, which is the opposite of France.

I sure do and it doesn't matter at all, my point is that people have had enough of their leaders who have been in power over the last few years ( or longer in UK case ) and continued to ignore the average Joe voter concerns about the issues that really matter to them and their everyday life. Left or right.

-15 ( +3 / -18 )

Early days, however I would not bet against exit polls.

There is no doubt this election is harsh anti-conservative backlash.

The exit polls are predicting Reform to take 13 seats.

That would be remarkable result.

Vote share, most importantly turn out will give an indication into the strength UK democracy.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

Are you saying roughly 40% of voters should vote centre-left as it looks like they they did in the UK and about a third should vote far-right as they did in France? What a very strange post.

Not at all, only strange if you choose the obvious point being made...sending a strong message and tossing out the current bunch of politicians , be they left or right leaning that have collectively ignored their electorate concerns. Democracy as it should be, right? ( or left ;)

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

Now i wonder, will the losing right we are all told are so dangerous be rioting in the streets, setting fires attacking perceived "left" businesses, throwing stones, etc...in protest like we saw in France by the left when the right only won in the first voting?

I am actually not being sarcastic, I am truly asking because the news regularly tells us how dangerous and violent the right are but then barely blinks when the left goes on one of their hissi fits causing damage in the streets!

It would be interesting to see how the news would react if a group of conservative supporters or Reform UK took to the streets to protest even if just a few and with zero violence.

-7 ( +7 / -14 )

Ramsey's Kitchen

You do realise that the UK have moved from the right to left, which is the opposite of France.

I sure do and it doesn't matter at all, my point is that people have had enough of their leaders who have been in power over the last few years ( or longer in UK case ) and continued to ignore the average Joe voter concerns about the issues that really matter to them and their everyday life. Left or right.

So really not identifying any trend or anything, but just saying that people want change. Not really that useful as a commentary.

3 ( +7 / -4 )

Antiquesaving

Now i wonder, will the losing right we are all told are so dangerous be rioting in the streets, setting fires attacking perceived "left" businesses, throwing stones, etc...in protest like we saw in France by the left when the right only won in the first voting?

Probably not. It isn't a left / right thing. It's a France / UK thing. French people will protest everything.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

I looked but it was difficult to find a trusted source as to the popular vote.

Best I could find says Labour has around 47% Reform 29% conservative 17%.

The inherent problem with the election system in the UK, Canada, Australia etc.. is the first past the post.

Yes Labour it going to win the majority of seats, but does it have a true majority and does it reflect the views of the majority?

Obviously if it got 47% the number of seat is highly above the number of those that voted for them and not by a little.

This would be the same if another party had won more seats.

In this case it is clear that at least Labour has the largest percentage of the popular vote, but we have seen in many countries including the UK, Canada, Australia where the winning party actually had less percentage of the popular vote than the opposition but still forms the government.

Sadly regardless who wins, that party will generally disregard the popular vote and act like it somehow has the country as a whole behind it, totally disregarding the rest that didn't vote for them.

And this attitude by both side (actually all sides) is usually what leads to the polarisation we are seeing in most of the elections happening now.

I wish the people of the UK luck and I hope Labour will not do as most previous governments and rule only for their base.

At this point around 52% didn't vote for them and if they take that into their ideas of governing then they have a good chance of doing something good for the country!

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

 my point is that people have had enough of their leaders who have been in power over the last few years ( or longer in UK case ) and continued to ignore the average Joe voter concerns about the issues that really matter to them and their everyday life. Left or right.

So really not identifying any trend or anything, but just saying that people want change. Not really that useful as a commentary.

Feel free not to read or comment on my comment then, lol. Just because I've stated a simple fact that you can't argue with, doesn't make it invalid.

-6 ( +4 / -10 )

Labour or tories, they are all the same. Same agenda and all. THey just say different things, but all in all are allies

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

Words around the camp fire, maybe fake news, Yvette Cooper, Shadow Home Secretary has lost her Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford seat to Reform?

No surely not.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

A lot of news outlets refer to Reform UK as far right or France’s RN as far right, but I never see any of them referring to Japans LDP as far right, yet most of the controversial policies of RN and Reform are already implemented here in Japan, often to a more extreme extent than those parties propose. Seems quite hypocritical to me.

Good to see the tories kicked out, they have been disastrous, but I’m not sure that Labour will make much difference. They need to get a control on immigration, which is something that doesn’t seem to be in their DNA, and the massive transfers of wealth from the public purse to the wealthiest during the banking crisis and then again during Covid, that needs to be transferred right back again. The focus should be on expanding the middle class and improving access to it to anyone prepared to work for it.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Protestant

Today 10:17 am JST

To the left, to the right, or to the centre - democracy is always a beautiful thing. It reflects the will of the people, whether your ‘side’ wins or loses, and that is exactly what autocrats and their ilk cannot stomach. If you live in a democracy, thank your lucky stars and defend it with everything you’ve got.

Is it democracy?

Perhaps at one point it was, but not much in my lifetime (no spring chicken).

Mostly what we see is a system that elects one party often without the majority of voters backing them.

Then that party governs for its base ignoring the majority (that didn't vote for them) .

The results are polarisation, the inevitable reversal in a future election and for the winner to proceed to do the exact same thing but this time to please thier base and often punish the base of the previous ruling party.

I don't call that actually a democracy but more of a tit for tat stagnation!

-13 ( +0 / -13 )

13 seats for Nigel?

not bad for debut.

Debut?

Eh?

7 ( +10 / -3 )

Bootle-Labour holds.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

Holborn & St Pancras Keir Starmer holds his seat. Low turnout 54%.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

13 seats for Nigel?

Probably no. Its just a prediction from the BBC election "expert" John Custice. He's a berk, just like other big BBC politics presenters like Laura Keussenberg and Fiona Bruce. BBC politics coverage is absolutely terrible.

Its great to see the back of the Tories, but based on the forty seats declared so far, it looks like turnout is well down at about 56%. Starmer is going to get a huge majority, but not that many people are voting for him. Starmer's approval rating is minus 19. At the previous changes of government, both Blair in 97 and Cameron in 2010 became PM with positive ratings. Starmer is starting off as not very popular and is unlikely to gain popularity if all he does is talk about spending limits.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Bootle-Labour holds

Could be a good night in The Jawbone.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Still going to supply Israel with weapons no doubt Keir??!

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Jawbone-cheers.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

For anyone playing Tory Cabinet bingo, Grant Shapps is out.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Nigel Farage wins his 8th attempt at becoming an MP. Majority 8,405.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Farage has overturned a conversative Majority of 25000

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Jeremy Corbyn holds his North Islington seat as an independent

2 ( +4 / -2 )

SNP having a terrible night.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

I never see any of them referring to Japans LDP as far right,

Because it's not far right. Look at how much money the LDP prints to pay for social programs. The LDP is opening the country up to more immigration, as "trainees". The LDP places virtually no restrictions on Japanese marrying foreigners and giving them spouse visas. Its not that difficult to naturalize as Japanese if you want to. Britain is way more difficult and involves a language, a history test most British people would fail, and huge application fee.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Nigel Farage wins his 8th attempt at becoming an MP. Majority 8,405

Hope he makes a good transition from just heckling to actually doing something useful for people.

Will be shock to the system at his age.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

Its just a prediction from the BBC election "expert" John Custice. 

The new BBC prediction for Reform is 4, which is less than a third of 13. Only wrong by a factor of three. How do people get these jobs?

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Nigel Farage. Clacton-on-Sea is a seaside holiday place. he's a good match for the town. Ice cream, rock, beer, and fish and chips.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

The new BBC prediction for Reform is 4, which is less than a third of 13. Only wrong by a factor of three. How do people get these jobs?

Pretty poor.

Also looks like the margin of Labour victory will be less than the exit poll suggested.

Revised down to 160-seat majority.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

For anyone playing Tory Cabinet bingo, Grant Shapps is out.

Mourdant, Mercer, Keegan, and Jenkyns gone too. Some really awful people.

The two crazies, Braverman and Badenoch, have got through and will probably be up for next leader.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Congratulations Labour, on offering a moderate option for the UK.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

A much needed change, hope they can do some good work.

Good to see the UK not embracing right wing crooks and liars like many countries are doing.

As per usual, we shall remain an island of reason ready to save the world from fascists yet again.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

but I never see any of them referring to Japans LDP as far right,

Probably because it is already baked in. Any referral to anyone right of the LDP in Japan is "ultra-right". They are the ones who ruled before the war and linger on in black vans and lurk on internet talk pages.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

The two crazies, Braverman and Badenoch, have got through and will probably be up for next leader.

Braverman keeping the up the rage against tofu-eaters and dreaming about deporting people in the next parliament.

Still remember that description of her as what happens if you feed Pritti Patel after midnight. Up there with ‘Something of the night about him’ describing Michael Howard or ‘lactose on intolerant’ when Farage got milkshaked.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Hopefully the Tory party will disappear.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

George Galloway out.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Because it's not far right. Look at how much money the LDP prints to pay for social programs. 

lol What? Spending on social programs isn't what determines whether a political party is far right. Plenty of far right groups support social spending for specific members of the state.

LDP is opening the country up to more immigration, as "trainees". 

They're not opening the country up for immigration. In fact they recently rejected that notion outright.

As for trainees, well yeah, they need cheap labor. This isn't done for altruistic reasons.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Congratulations to Prime Minster Kier Starmer and his Labour government.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

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