NATO leaders meet this week for a summit commemorating the 75th anniversary of the military alliance, which has never been larger and more focused but is also facing potentially existential threats from outside and within.
If Russia’s war in Ukraine, challenges posed by an increasingly aggressive China, and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza weren’t enough, some key members' commitment to defend their allies is coming under question.
There is deep uncertainty over President Joe Biden’s ability to beat his predecessor, NATO skeptic Donald Trump, in November to lead the most powerful member of the alliance.
While Biden’s political troubles are stirring concerns at home and abroad, countries in Europe are facing their own issues with a rise of far-right populism, particularly in France and Hungary, threatening what had been a bedrock pillar of post-World War II security and stability.
Here’s what to watch for at the three-day summit:
Reeling from his disastrous June 27 debate performance and struggling to hold his reelection campaign together, Biden says people should look to his interactions at the NATO summit for proof that he is still strong and vigorous enough to lead.
Diplomats and analysts say they will be watching closely — although NATO leaders accept they have no control over American elections and are unlikely to weigh in publicly.
“The outcome of the November election matters enormously for NATO and pretty much all heads of state and government in the alliance feel the same way, even if they refuse to discuss it,” said Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
The prospect of Trump returning to the White House has alarmed many in Europe who fear he may reduce U.S. commitments to NATO or Ukraine — or pull them completely.
“There is nothing that Biden’s NATO counterparts can do to affect that outcome, so they are in the uncomfortable position of being observers to a process that is critical to the alliance but over which they have no control,” Rathke said.
Biden, who has taken credit for strengthening NATO and resisting Russian President Vladimir Putin, said his confidence and competence would be on display.
But he will be under tremendous pressure to quell growing concern that he is not up to the job, as either de facto head of NATO or commander in chief of the alliance’s most important member.
“The unpredictability of what (Trump) might do and how quickly in office he might do it, leaves people on edge,” Rathke said. “It would be a significant jolt to NATO if he were to win.”
As much as the spotlight will be on Biden, 31 other leaders have a voice in NATO decision-making. The summit will be British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first appearance on the world stage just days after winning a resounding victory in elections.
Although Starmer has signaled continued strong support for both NATO and Ukraine, gains made by far-right parties, as well as left-wing groups opposed to Western support for Israel’s war in Gaza, may dilute London’s influence.
Of more concern is turmoil in France, where President Emmanuel Macron's government is facing political uncertainty after left-wing parties united to beat a surging far right in legislative elections but still didn't win a majority in parliament. The far-right party, which is skeptical of NATO, greatly increased the number of seats it holds.
And there are Hungary and Turkey, the last two NATO members to hold out on allowing the newest members, Finland and Sweden, to join the alliance. Viktor Orban of Hungary raised alarm bells by visiting Russia last week for talks with Putin, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains on good terms with the Kremlin.
In many respects, the alliance has never looked stronger. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, NATO gained those two members, bringing the total to 32. At the same time, Eastern and Central European members closer to Russia’s borders — the Baltic states, Poland and the Czech Republic — have stepped up support for Ukraine and NATO as an institution.
But NATO is fragile. Its policies must be made by unanimous consensus, and political upheaval in capitals hinders future decision-making. NATO leaders are expected once again to reaffirm their “open door” policy — that membership is open to any country meeting the requirements. But Ukraine won't see its hoped-for invitation this week.
“In some ways, this NATO summit is coming as sort of the best of times and the worst of times. The best of times, in the sense that the alliance knows what it’s about,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“But it’s also sort of the worst of times — obviously because of the war in Ukraine, challenges of ramping up European defense spending, concerns about the reliability of the United States,” he said.
Defense spending has been one of Trump’s biggest complaints about NATO, and he has repeatedly suggested that the U.S. wouldn't defend countries that don’t meet the agreed-upon goal of spending 2% of gross domestic product on defense.
NATO officials have championed a significant increase — to 23 — in the number of allies meeting that commitment. Several more are expected to say they're meeting that standard during the summit.
Many NATO allies in the past year have signed their own security agreements with Ukraine to provide long-term guarantees of assistance for Kyiv to defend itself from Russia and prevent possible future attacks.
Russia made significant battlefield gains over the past several months during congressional delays in approving U.S. military aid. Those have been overcome, and a new multibillion-dollar package is expected to be announced this week.
But Ukraine’s goal is joining NATO, placing it under the alliance’s Article 5 collective security umbrella that obligates other members to come to its defense if attacked.
Membership is highly unlikely while the conflict rages. However, the allies plan to present Ukraine with a “bridge” to membership that would further lay out next steps.
In the meantime, countries are expected to pledge new military and economic support. Billions of dollars have already been sent to Ukraine, and officials say more is coming. Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday that contributions of roughly $43 billion per year should be the baseline moving ahead.
During a visit to the Pentagon on Monday, Stoltenberg said the week's focus will be on securing additional defense commitments and trying to get the war in Ukraine to an end.
“At the summit we will make decisions to further strengthen our support for Ukraine, and the Russians understand that they will not be able to wait us out,” the NATO chief said. “They need to sit down and accept a solution where Ukraine remains a sovereign nation.”
NATO allies also are focused on threats posed by China, including persistent disinformation campaigns aimed at sowing doubts in democratic systems. And they have repeatedly complained that Chinese sales of some tools and technology have allowed Moscow to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base to wage war in Ukraine.
The U.S., in particular, has called out China for pursuing policies that threaten European security as Beijing seeks broader commercial relations with the countries of Europe.
For the third year in a row, leaders or top officials from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea will attend the NATO summit for discussions on how to deal with Chinese threats in the South China Sea and beyond.
Tara Copp contributed to this story.
© Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
40 Comments
nik
NATO is a defensive alliance, and if so, defend yourself, they will soon come for you. And if NATO is a military alliance, then you are expected to take decisive steps that would put you in an awkward position. So it’s better to end your existence yourself in the name of peace and tranquility on earth. Trump knows what he's doing, Biden go on vacation
WoodyLee
NATO is Obsolete .
quercetum
NATO is hurt by Biden. Lot of entities are disadvantaged by Biden, and the number is growing.
I predicted and posted the above pre-debate. After the debate, it’s even more telling. Biden is gone.
It’s not about Biden and Trump. Having Biden is not going to help with elected representatives’ elections.
The Democrats are throwing Biden under the bus,
wallace
NATO would only be obsolete if it was replaced by a new European force.
theFu
NATO is only a deterrent against Russia and Russian controlled authoritarian govts. Where ever Russian forces show up, there needs to be a NATO contingent to make the Russians think again, before invading, yet another country.
They've already invaded Georgia and Ukraine. Both aren't NATO members. I have no doubt that Russia would have invaded Poland, if it wasn't a NATO member. Clearly the Fins decided the same - and have joined NATO. This is all because Putin wants to put the USSR back together. Ukraine remembers what it was like being under Russia. It sucked. So does Poland. Belarus knows, but they have a leader who can't leave office if he wants to stay alive ... until he runs to Russia. He won't retire peacefully in Belarus, that is certain.
As for Biden, he actually listens to advisors. He doesn't say they are lying. He doesn't fire smart people who disagree with some warped stance. As long as Biden is breathing, he is better than the other option. Heck, even if he dies - before the election - hide it and I'll still vote for him, gladly. Anyone, ANYONE, dead or alive, is better than Trump for America and the world.
theFu
The Russian economy is eating about 6% just to pay out required money to injured and killed Russians from their folly in Ukraine.
>
Ah_so
NATO is our best defence against the Russian menace. It must stay strong.
TokyoOldMan
Who let Rishi Sunak in ?
bass4funk
Time for the U.S. to pullout.
wallace
The US was the last NATO member that needed Article 5 of the treaty on 9/11.
bass4funk
I couldn’t agree more.
JJE
One thing they definitely will talk about behind closed doors is this:
NATO's air defense equipment in Kyiv and in places around the country suffered an embarrassing failure over the last few days. Russian air units got the better of them, inflicted huge losses on western supplied systems and other targets, with their own missiles going errant.
Complete disaster.
bass4funk
https://hir.harvard.edu/empty-meetings-and-broken-promises-how-nato-is-failing-to-do-its-job/
And rings truer than ever today.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Thankfully Congress has ensured that the know-nothings don't have that as an option.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Your first year student is saying NATO needs a more robust response to Russia and that was written prior to Putin's War. Do you read the things you are posting?
bass4funk
Thankfully most of the establishment in the House are gone, so it makes Trump’s mission a lot easier and even more so if they can retake the Senate back, these RINO’s continue to lose. The future looks bright.
Yes, but I think you don’t.
Yrral
Trash like Orban and other European leaders should not be allowed on American soil,spouting their White spiteful supremacy
Yrral
Bass4,White right wing politically do not have no future,when Black and other minority,will determine who will rule America in the near future
bass4funk
Yeah, that comment didn’t have any racist connotation overtones whatsoever…
JJE
Highly unlikely means impossible. Highly unlikely also applies to the circumstances required for Kyiv to be eligible for NATO membership, which is to win the war hands-down, pushing the Russians back to 1991 borders - which also means impossible.
Any sensible person knows this is never going to happen now that Kyiv regime forces have/are being ground down, daily incremental gains made with the complete initiative held by RFAF and the vast mobilization of their economy/society to a war footing.
Moreover, Moscow has made plain that a truncated Ukraine rump state will be fully neutral and will never be permitted to join NATO. Kremlin will never allow it.
This is actually the root cause of the conflict. This 'bridge' is likely to be an obstacle to peace and an invitation for larger Russian gains.
TaiwanIsNotChina
All of that is to say Ukraine will have access to everything in the NATO arsenal.
Thankfully Moscow cannot afford the demands it makes.
I thought it was the nazis, or the language law, or the shelling, or (insert reason of the day here). Putin, like any unhinged individual, is unable to explain what the demands of Ukraine are.
I am all in favor of additional expenditure of Russian forces.
wallace
I listened to Bidens NATO speech which went off without problems. Biden surprises NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg with the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
JJE
Zelensky made the main photo and, of course, he will be at the meeting.
Interesting fact: on the night of July 8th, when explosions thundered all over Ukraine in the rear areas, Zelensky left Ukraine for Poland a few hours before the raids started.
One may think this is coincidence, but he has never actually been in Kyiv during missile strikes and always traditionally leaves the country when strikes are imminent (massing of strategic aviation is not hard to detect).
OssanAmerica
NATO is not obsolete. In fact it is more significant and relevant than ever.
Putin most certainly doesn't consider NATO to be obsolete.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Always important to note that every single non-military facility targeted is a war crime.
wallace
Russian destruction of a Ukrainian children's cancer hospital. UN human rights chief Volker Türk “deplored” the attack which severely damaged the intensive care, surgical, and oncology wards of Ukraine's largest children's referral hospital.
itsonlyrocknroll
No European army will ever in the foreseeable future match NATO, simply no collective spine/backbone, the political unity/will to stand up to President Putin, a force that would overrun western Europe/ EU within weeks when tactical battlefield nuclear weapons are deployed.
All will appease such aggression.
Only the US sheer arsenal/depth of strike capability could repel such an onslaught. And the willingness to use such force.
Germany would not even contemplate supplying long range missiles, let alone accepting the risk of all out war
Sooner or later Ukraine will runout of young fighting men, this war is being fought on Ukraine soil.
Putin is biding his time, slowly but surely dismantling the Ukraine essential infrastructure. Schools, Hospitals, its rail network, it energy supply, its economy.
EU member states will be left with the huge bill/cost to rebuild Ukraine for decades to come.
Hamstrung by its members states self interests, its energy insecurities.
itsonlyrocknroll
Europe is totally reliant on the belief that treaty based laws, the threats of sanctions, on the dependence of rules based structures will prevent the use of force.
That hissing and booing from a toothless EU parliament will deter Putin.
The Government of China, countries such as India/Iran will hug despot dictators for fear that arms/the gas and oil will stop.
EU will accept terms surrender.
TaiwanIsNotChina
The EU has 3x the population of Russia and is wealthier. Than only thing preventing them from turning Russia back on their own is a lack of unity, which is understandable.
Better Euros than dead and wounded soldiers like Russia has to deal with along with permanent sanctions.
wallace
"Congress has approved legislation that would prevent any president from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress. "
itsonlyrocknroll
TaiwanIsNotChina,
No argument or debate on the valid points you raise. Putin is a ruthless dictator.
However there is no escape from EU/UK future economic costs of a carbon neutral/net zero/zero emissions ideology, although all should viewed independent of each other.
Russian government is not remotely politically beholden to such policies, neither is China or Indian. .
Putin Russia is at a crossroads, its huge natural resources could ultimately force EU/UK into capitulation forcing Ukraine into a form of compromise for the very reasons you outline.
As of 2021, Russia held natural resources amounting to an estimated total value of 75 trillion U.S. dollars. This figure includes the value of Russia's many valuable natural resources, which includes coal, oil, natural gas, gold, timber, and rare earth metals, among others. ..
Leading countries worldwide based on natural resource value as of 2021
https://www.statista.com/statistics/748223/leading-countries-based-on-natural-resource-value/#:~:text=As%20of%202021%2C%20Russia%20held,rare%20earth%20metals%2C%20among%20others.
Biden and the US people have been a saviour for Ukraine.
Biden was transfixed to his teleprompter. He managed to at least sound stateman like.
bass4funk
So if the Republicans retake the Senate and it looks like that could be a real possibility, they would pull back or limit aid.
TaiwanIsNotChina
No country is an island. Even your figure of 75 trillion is only about three years of US GDP. Most Russians aren't going to want to go into mining or oil drilling. Meanwhile, the disastrous war in Ukraine is driving away talent.
Not as long as they can tap into the huge resources of the US, Canada, and Norway, among others.
Then China and India are going to be in a very bad place when their water source, the Himalayas, goes completely dry.
wallace
What "aid" are you referring to?
TaiwanIsNotChina
That's not the same as withdrawing from NATO, but even for Ukraine aid, not too many Republicans are as eager to grab their ankles as you are.
TaiwanIsNotChina
*Republicans in Congress
bass4funk
Both Ukraine and NATO. I hope that we can leave the organization one day and soon.
Trust me, if you want to call me or any other American first conservative a coward, I can sleep very well, so....
itsonlyrocknroll
There are no victors in war only cenotaphs to remember the fallen.
Certainly, Russia has no shortage of foreign companies willing to provide the investment to assist with third parties to mine and drill.
Turkey, India, China amongst other, Germany spent billons on Nord Stream pipe lines.
Hungary and old soviet block countries are dependent on Russian energy
The EU’s continued dependency on Russian gas could jeopardize its foreign policy goals
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/06/eus-continued-dependency-russian-gas-could-jeopardize-its-foreign-policy-goals
NATO was and still is ill equipped in Europe to fully support Ukraine.
wallace
bass4funk
The US does not give aid to NATO. It makes its defense budget and pays a part of the $2 billion administration fee.
The US aid to Ukraine has nothing to do with NATO.
itsonlyrocknroll
Ukraine will not be joining NATO or EU, at least in my lifetime.
There will be offers of a faint hope, a hint a whisper, all will come to nothing.