By Kate Holton
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain looks set to elect Labour Party leader Keir Starmer as its next prime minister when voters go to the polls on Thursday, sweeping Rishi Sunak's Conservatives out of office after 14 often turbulent years.
Opinion polls put Starmer's centre-left party on course for a landslide victory as voters turn their backs on the Conservatives following a period of infighting and turmoil that led to five prime ministers in eight years.
However, surveys show many voters simply want change, rather than fervently backing Labour, meaning Starmer could enter office with one of the biggest to-do lists in British history but without a groundswell of support or the financial resources to tackle it.
"Today, Britain can begin a new chapter," Starmer told voters in a statement on Thursday. "We cannot afford five more years under the Conservatives. But change will only happen if you vote Labour."
Sunak, who called the election months earlier than expected, has in recent weeks abandoned his call for a fifth consecutive Conservative victory, switching instead to warning of the dangers of an unchallenged Labour Party in parliament.
He issued a fresh rallying cry to voters for election day, saying a Labour government would hike taxes, hamper economic recovery and leave Britain more vulnerable at a time of geopolitical tension, charges Labour deny.
"They will do lasting damage to our country and our economy - just like they did the last time they were in power," Sunak said. "Don't let that happen."
PUNISHING GOVERNMENT
If the opinion polls are correct, Britain will follow other European countries in punishing their governments after a cost of living crisis that stemmed from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Unlike France it looks set to move to the centre left and not further right.
Labour has held a poll lead of between 15 and 20 points since shortly after Sunak was chosen by his lawmakers in October 2022 to replace Liz Truss who resigned after 44 days, having sparked a bond market meltdown and a collapse in sterling.
Modelling by pollsters predicts Labour is on course for one of the biggest election victories in British history, with a likely majority in parliament that would exceed those achieved by Tony Blair or Margaret Thatcher, although a high number of voters are undecided and turnout could be low.
Such an outcome would have been unthinkable at Britain's last election in 2019 when Boris Johnson won a large victory for the Conservatives, with politicians predicting that the party would be in power for at least 10 years as Labour was finished.
Starmer, the former chief prosecutor of England and Wales, took over Labour from veteran socialist Jeremy Corbyn after it suffered its worst defeat for 84 years in 2019, and dragged it back to the centre.
At the same time, the Conservatives in Westminster have imploded, ripped apart by scandal under Johnson and the rancour that followed the vote to leave the European Union, and a failure to deliver on the demands of its broad 2019 voter base.
While Johnson destroyed the party's reputation for integrity, Truss eroded its long-held economic credibility, leaving Sunak to steady the ship. During his time inflation returned to target from its 41-year high of 11.1% and he resolved some Brexit tensions, but the polls have not budged.
Sunak's election campaign has been hit by a string of gaffes. He announced the vote in driving rain, an early departure from a D-Day event in France angered veterans and allegations of election gambling among aides reignited talk of scandal.
The unexpected arrival of Nigel Farage to lead the right-wing Reform UK has also eaten into the Conservatives' vote, while the centrist Liberal Democrats are predicted to fare well in the party's traditional affluent heartlands.
PROMISE OF CHANGE
Starmer could also benefit from a Labour recovery in Scotland, after the Scottish National Party embarked on its own self-destructive path following a funding scandal and looks set to lose its stronghold for the first time since 2015.
But Starmer may find his fortunes more sorely tested in Downing Street.
His campaign was built around a one-word promise of 'Change', tapping into anger at the state of stretched public services and falling living standards. But he will have few levers to pull, with the tax burden set to hit its highest since 1949 and net debt almost equivalent to annual economic output.
Starmer has consistently warned that he will not be able to fix anything quickly, and his party has courted international investors to help address the challenges.
Sunak has argued that his 20 months in charge have set the economy on an upward path and Labour should not be allowed to put that in jeopardy.
Voters will give their verdict on Thursday.
Polls open from 7 a.m. until 10 p.m. (0600-2100 GMT) and an exit poll at 10 p.m. will give the first sign of the outcome with detailed results expected early on Friday.
(Writing by Kate Holton; additional reporting by William Schomberg; Editing by Janet Lawrence)
© (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2024.
57 Comments
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WoodyLee
HELLO Labour, GoodBye Consrv.
14 years is way more than enough.
Japan NEXT!!? , time for new idea's, new faces, FRESH start.
Yrral
Maybe they will abolish the monarchy,the British have always been dysfunction
Jimizo
Some polls showing the Tories might do slightly better than what people thought about a week ago with them gaining a bit at Reform’s expense.
The worst polls for Sunak show a possibility of the LibDems being the largest opposition party.
Jimizo
Very unlikely you see.
WoodyLee
Billionaires never make good national leaders as they are too busy counting their gains and profits.
GuruMick
Well, golly gosh gee.... a day or so before the right wing boosters on this forum were cheering the "rebirth " of the far right in Euro countries.
{Remains to be seen actually }
Well, what happened.
UK people voting for a normal, decent outcome, not scared of migrants and their own shadows
Yrral
Voting on the 4th of July, the British obviously knew this date ,set the stage for the crumbling of the British empire,they do not even teach this in their school Google 4 of July In Britain
itsonlyrocknroll
Keir Starmer is predicted UK today, to become the next Prime Minster, with what has been reported an unprecedented historic super majority.
The respected independent institute of fiscal studies has been scathing of both Tories and Labour on a conspiracy of silence.
Labour Party manifesto: an initial response
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/labour-party-manifesto-initial-response
Yes, growth could surprise on the upside – and if it does, then the fiscal arithmetic would be easier. But if it doesn’t – and it hasn’t tended to in recent years – then either we will get those cuts, or the fiscal targets will be fudged, or taxes will rise.
The top-ups of £5 billion or so to day-to-day spending in the manifesto mostly pay for additional promises for the NHS and schools, rather than significantly reducing the scale of implied cuts to spending on unprotected public services.
Like the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, Labour continues in a conspiracy of silence on the difficulties they would face. These challenges are already perfectly clear. The books are open.
A post-election routine of shock-and-horror at the state of the public finances will not cut it.
On taxation, on any future EU relationship, on the costs NHS reforms, on the costs of elderly social caret, on their pensions.
Silence on the costs of education school classroom improvement, on transport, the cost of car ownership for families that are dependent on ferrying elderly relatives to hospital appointments.
On essential reforms of agricultural subsidies for family own farming communities.
Nothing just a constant stream of waffle.
Today the UK electorate will, for the first time take part in a political form of ballot box Russian roulette.
Jimizo
Some predicting the largest amount of tactical voting in any UK election.
Quite a few big Tory names could go here.
I’d love to see Rees-Mogg go.
Mordaunt, Hunt, Badenoch, Truss and even Sunak himself have been targeted. Can’t see them all losing their seats. Hunt and Mordaunt look the most vulnerable.
Would be very entertaining to watch but if that happens, who’d be left to lead them?
deanzaZZR
The "economic recovery" that Sunak speaks of is an economic forecast to grow at a 0.5% rate by the IMF.
Sanjinosebleed
When there are really only 2 sides to choose from, is it truly a democracy or just the best of two bad choices!?
itsonlyrocknroll
My only concern is my UK family farming business that is essential to the local community.
Also the people, families from across Europe and beyond, a workforce that built the Brighton business.
Many became UK citizens, brought into the UK way of life, purchased homes, are now face facing the serious financial aftermath of a devastating Pandemic.
Any additional taxation, especially local taxation will be the last straw that broke the camel's back.
u_s__reamer
That grin on Starmer's face will be wiped off when he gets what he lusts after and when Karma demands its pound of his flesh during his years in office. A person with a vile record in public office that has been airbrushed out by the PR spin-doctors who have successfully pulled the wool over the eyes of millions. Another fine mess awaits the weary British people.
Jimizo
Every election as far as I can remember.
The last one had people in the north of England gambling on Boris Johnson’s promise of ‘leveling up’.
A majority played Russian Roulette with Brexit and blew their brains out.
Elections, eh?
jackandjill
The number of immigrants crossing in boats across the English Channel is less than 10% of the total. Immigrants are needed for farmer workers and other vacancies like care workers in old people's homes.
jackandjill
The drum of the Tory death roll is banging louder, and louder. Sunak is a dead man walking.
Simon Foston
SanjinosebleedToday 09:35 am JST
It would be properly democratic if there were just two parties in every constituency, as was originally the case, as the winner would have a majority of the votes. First-past-the-post ceases to be democratic when there's a lot of small parties and the winner no longer needs 51% of the votes. It's a pity people voted against replacing FPTP with the AV system a few years ago.
Ramsey's Kitchen
Another neocon poster boy just about gone. Toss him out UK voters.
Japan NEXT!!? , time for new idea's, new faces, FRESH start.
Wouldn't that be nice. But Japan? Nah, it will be another LDP fossil who will take reigns, the system is rigged against other parties. Kono is the only one with some fresh ideas and the best of a bad LDP lot but the establishment will likely stop him as it is "not his turn " yet.
itsonlyrocknroll
People want change, Jimizo, well that's is the message I seem to be hearing from every quarter.
Any change.
However Europe is in a political vortex possibly moving in another direction.
The US could follow.
UK, could have had, if managed in a smart stealthy wait and see, non combative, new approach to the methodology behind withdrawal from the EU.
The whole sorry sage degenerated into sovereignty driven, boat people/immigrants lunacy.
Both political and economic.
The negotiation were left to factions associated with Beavis and Butt-Head.
There will be political blood spilled today at the ballot box.
Farage will possibly win his first seat in Clacton.
If so, he better rise to the occasion, or face the consequences.
TaiwanIsNotChina
So much for the Putinist dream of a right wing wave.
Simon Foston
WoodyLeeToday 08:45 am JST
No, sadly
True, but no other party in Japan has as much history, name recognition, funding or grassroots support as the LDP. That means no other party can field enough candidates to get anything like the majority Labour is expected to win.
Bad Haircut
I would like to see Reform pick up some seats, but worry that their votes may be spread too thinly across the population rather than concentrated in certain seats, which would increase their chances. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but in any case the utter contempt the Tories had for the public has condemned the country to at least 5 years of Labor rule.
Moonraker
Often you are a poster to be listened to, u_s__reamer, but can you elaborate here? I'd hate to think we had lost you down a rabbit hole. You are talking about Starmer, right? I mean, what could he have done that would trump the totally inept Tories?
Ramsey's Kitchen
Go Labour.
kohakuebisu
That's a direct quote of Nigel Farage, speaking to a UK audience yesterday. If you believe the above about the United Kingdom, please upvote this comment. If you don't, please downvote it. I am especially interested how "very jealous" those of you from "the rest of the world" are.
kohakuebisu
Here's a YouGov poll, saying that a full 5% of people intending to vote Labour "agree with their policies". 61% either want to "get the Tories out" or think "the country needs a change", both of which are judgements of the current government. In its campaign Labour has actually moved all of its policies toward those of this government. Unlike Obama, it is not even offering a lip-service slogan version of "change".
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808458226142196083
itsonlyrocknroll
If the JT will allow me to suggest contributors maybe would like join in with LSE
Welcome LSE Live election night 2024 9.15pm to 2am UK time
https://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2024/07/202407042100/GE
There is resignation, all free, also with full privacy proposals
https://lselive.eckoenterprise.net/events/20240704/login
itsonlyrocknroll
kohakuebisu
Nigel Farage offers an a political "pied piper" rhetorical world of illusion that simply does not exist.
Farage is a skilled public speaker .
However populism has a long way to go to offer sustainable policies for working families, for small businesses, for a future beyond the blame game of everybody else fault that will never offer solutions.
'Our culture is directly under THREAT' Nigel Farage SLAMS mass immigration to ROARING crowd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U4XEwb2WXd0
Nigel Farage has convinced himself, he will be the "opposition" to Labour in office.
How many reform candidates can you name?
It is a fair question.
Moonraker
Not sure how many people from the rest of the world you will get on a pretty niche article about the politics of a small and increasingly irrelevant country, kohakuebisu. I am sure there will be plenty of patriotic Brits though, living in the past, imagining the Spitfire and the Beatles. And they will downvote this comment too.
Toblerone
Well, golly gosh gee.... a day or so before the right wing boosters on this forum were cheering the "rebirth " of the far right in Euro countries.
You misunderstand. Sunak and his party are not conservatives. The Tory party ceased being conservative quite some time ago. I hope they are absolutely obliterated in the election.
That grin on Starmer's face will be wiped off when he gets what he lusts after and when Karma demands its pound of his flesh during his years in office. A person with a vile record in public office that has been airbrushed out by the PR spin-doctors who have successfully pulled the wool over the eyes of millions. Another fine mess awaits the weary British people.
Agreed.
Jimizo
You were saying they were likely to be the main opposition party the other day.
Who told you that?
Farage looks like he’s got a good chance in Clacton and Labour/Conservative/Reform 30p Lee might do okay. A few others have a shot.
Some Reform candidates dropped out due to what they described as rampant racism and homophobia in the party. A recent appalling comment about autistic people from a Reform member didn’t go down well either. Farage’s comments about Putin’s invasion were at best ill-advised.
Not the best run-in to the election from them.
Jimizo
Fair criticism.
Labour have said they’ll basically stick to Tory spending controls and the ‘changes’ aren’t going to amount to much.
A less corrupt, incompetent and stable administration is the ‘change’?
Hardly inspiring.
Mark
no matter who win the election, the time you choosed the brexit in 2016, that was the ending time already
itsonlyrocknroll
Nigel Farage, UKIP elected to European Parliament from 1994 to spend his time hissing and booing instead of using his MEP status to reform the establishment.
Farage could have built a coalition of like minded, to separate the political, economic, the over reaching CAP regulatory budgetary (common agricultural policy) frame work, to hold back expansion.
Farage instead wanted to dismantle the whole European Union.
It was a fools errand.
Now 2024, Farage UK, is again like a politically weather vane bent/stuck in one direction, unable to compromise, to bring forward smart alternatives.
itsonlyrocknroll
Tony Blair influence to this new labour government is in the here and now.
Blair has the political skin of a velociraptor, and the cunning political predatory stealth skills to match.
Trust me you will never sense Tony Blair coming, until it is to late.
King Tony is only a matter of time.
Jimizo
A bit of bingo is good fun:
https://x.com/janeygodley/status/1808532643350253902?s=46&t=2cgM68useCIAD0Jdcn4nkQ
u_s__reamer
Starmer is campaigning on "change", but what sort of change? Sucking up his Tory-lite snake-oil will leave a bitter after-taste when the punters are rudely awakened to find themselves once again between a rock and a hard place experiencing post-election tristesse and a whopping hangover from the false hope of their "democratic" Hobson's choice. Blue Austerity Redux is waiting under Starmer's pink cloak provided by his donors.
Simon Foston
MoonrakerToday 12:01 pm JST
I think the idea was to downvote if you disagree with Nigel Farage and those kinds of people probably wouldn't
itsonlyrocknroll
u_s__reamer
The government Keir Starmer in on course to govern, is not totally of his own "mirror mirror on the wall who is premier of them all".
There are some miscreant "women" in the back ground soon to rain on Keirs parade make adjustments to labours behavioural patterns in government.
Moonraker
I see what you mean u_s__reamer. And largely agree. His "change" seems almost imperceptible. I thought you might have had more juicy to add on Starmer's "vile record in public office."
And, Simon, I was saying these patriotic Brits would downvote my post. As is proving to be the case. I understand what they should do on kohakuebisu's post.
Chabbawanga
Recent polls show the main reason people are voting Labour is "to boot tories out"... I mean what a powerful platform to launch the next labour government from /s
Bad Haircut
I said could be. Nobody knows until the results come in.
Reform has cleaned out a few loose cannons, and the Tories seem to have gotten to a few candidates who weren't that committed to Reform after all. Maybe they fell for that scam Channel 4 tried to pull last week by getting an actor to say some unsavoury things in an attempt to discredit the party.
Simon Foston
Bad HaircutToday 03:31 pm JST
Who says it was a scam pulled by Channel 4? Oh yes - Reform UK. Must be right then.
Jimizo
You said likely to.
Who told you that?
Bad Haircut
Show me. If I did, then I did. No big deal.
I head my right-wing podcasters talking about it. Ya know, the ones you condescendingly sneer at with no justification whatsoever.
Bad Haircut
People outside Reform, but obviously its supporters, have been digging into the background of the actor involved.
Jimizo
Okay. You posted:
Who told you this?
Sounds about right.
Bad Haircut
Sounds like that sneer again. Thing is, how you yo manage to sneer upwards from your lofty position in the gutter?
Jimizo
I’m just asking who told you Reform are likely to form the main opposition to Labour in the next parliament.
Just share the link. I really want to understand the reasoning behind this prediction.
It’s a very unusual one.
Simon Foston
Bad HaircutToday 05:05 pm JST
Ofcom have also looked into this and found no grounds for launching an investigation into Channel 4.
KyotoToday
Are you high? There will always be at least five kings in Europe: The king of Hearts, The King of Spades, The King of Clubs, The King of Diamonds and The King of The United Kingdom - dysfunction has served us well for a fair long time.
Moonraker
Oh dear! What does Forage have to say about that? Won't it just be the establishment out to get him? I mean, we have heard all that kind of paranoia before from many populists. It's part of the arsenal and appeal - outsiders against the system on behalf of the people whom they secretly despise.
Simon Foston
YrralToday 09:21 am JST
The British Empire was larger and more powerful in 1876 than it was in 1776. What crumbling?
You think they don't teach anything about a war Britain fought in? Wow. I remember all those history classes all wrong.
Have you?
Bad Haircut
Ofcom, like the BBC, are ivory tower left-wing types who despise Reform, so it's a foregone conclusion that they would dismiss it.
TokyoOldMan
There is a very interesting development in Wales, where the current Labor local government has put forward the proposal for a new Law, making it Illegal for Politicians to lie.... that, would be "Ground breaking" - if provable / enforceable.
Simon Foston
Bad HaircutJuly 4 09:17 pm JS
Are they now. Who exactly are they, do you know?
kurisupisu
@itsonlytockandroll
Got a link for that?