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© Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.Japan's birthrate falls to record low as number of marriages also drops
By MARI YAMAGUCHI TOKYO©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.
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Asiaman7
Wait! So the child allowances dolled out over the past decade-plus have not been working?!
Ever meet anyone claiming that a moderate child care allowance encouraged them to have a child? Me neither.
Asiaman7
— Japan’s Declining Fertility Rate
1947, 4.54
1957, 2.04
1975, 1.91
1985, 1.76
1995, 1.42
2005, 1.26
2015, 1.45
2020, 1.34
2022, 1.26
2003, 1.20
dagon
Fascinating that all of the top National stories are about addressing the population decline.
Dating apps and one off subsidies are the usual lazy half measures when it comes to LDP gov social welfare.
People will start families when they want to.
Japan should follow the Nordic model with stable, healthy , smaller populations with all the guarantees of social welfare.
Not just education, health care, day care, but strong enforcement against companies who use tactics to discourage taking advantage of guaranteed benefits.
That might conflict with some of the goals and prejudices of the LDPs cronies though.
sakurasuki
JGovt and Japanese society just act as this number doesn't exist and pretend to be in shock.
sakurasuki
With current price hikes and wage stagnant, is getting harder to have new babies, JGovt just won't admit this.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/08/a5ab91062795-families-with-babies-in-japan-facing-steeper-price-hikes.html
Asiaman7
Real wages just fell for a 25th consecutive month! And that’s after all that talk last month about the successful 5% wage increases for the 16.5% of employees who belong to unions.
What about the lack of wage increases for the majority who don’t belong to unions — as wealthy management exacerbate the income gap by treating themselves to significant performance bonuses!?
koiwaicoffee
I see a lot of kids in their 20s uninterested in finding a couple. A real couple I mean, not just a convenient spouse to comply with society expectations. And many of them find to have a boy/girlfriend bothersome, having to make the effort to share their feelings with someone else when it's easier to just disappear behind their mobile screens.
Don't worry, the LDP dating app will turn things around!
obladi
Long work hours do not make good bedfellows.
BigP
There’s your answer.
“Japan should follow the Nordic model with stable, healthy , smaller populations with all the guarantees of social welfare.”
Or to put it plainly, government supporting big business and not the people. So, quality of life is bad enough without trying to start a family.
tora
Short of an immediate stop to female empowerment and gender equality, a return to agrarian life styles and the abandonment of our dystopian mega cities, there is no way we are suddenly going to go up to anywhere near replacement levels of 2.1 and beyond.
The government knows this. Any "measures" are just political kabuki.
Randy Johnson
By design.
Marriage is now a poor option for young males.
Redemption
Smart. Geriatracy is for the old people to comfortably manage our extinction.
Aly Rustom
According to the latest statistics, Japan's fertility rate — the average number of babies a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — stood at 1.2 last year.
If the current inflation continues without wage rises and more gov help and more safety nets expect the fertility rate to plummet to S Korea's levels.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters that it's "a critical situation.” The next six years, until the 2030s, will be “the last chance for us to possibly reverse the trend,” he said.
And if they don't reverse the trend by then (and they won't) then what? What's the game plan?
ebisen
As a young male, WHY would you want to get married and see your anyway pretty small income, suddenly split in three? Not that it would matter, as you would lose immediately control over ALL it and you will hand it all over to the stay-at-home-wife. This is the scenario in sight for the vast majority of males between 18-30 in Japan.
The same for a female - you've spent 16 years in school and are about to start a good career - some are engineers and doctors - WHY would you want to stay at home and become nothing more than a baby-making machine, as the visions of stale, know nothing ojiisans from the LPD dictate?
The only reason would be love. That's not so easy to find behind smartphone screens. Just go to a nice restaurant and watch the first time daters not talking to each other but browsing away on their iPhones, to understand how this is not going to work. LPD thought, in their utter incompetence even of that - so they made yet another useless omiyai app :) .
Anyway - Japan is too overpopulated as it is.
Strangerland
As a father who has a beautiful wife he loves spending time with, that question is pretty easy for me to answer.
In retrospect, I'd do the exact same again if I were in the situation.
Chabbawanga
It has been helping families who have been having children.
ebisen
Strangeland - congratulations - I'm not dismissing that many would do this for love - like in your case. But the obvious truth (given the birthrates) is that you are in the minority here, and many won't ever find such good reasons to give away their current life because of society pressuring them into building a family.
Ricky Kaminski13
No one ever talks about the massive elephant in the room. An outdated education system that beats the personalities out of the kids to the point that interpersonal skills, especially between the sexes, are severely lacking. Throw in a risk averse culture for good measure, one that tells everyone to play the safe and easy card at all costs and you have another generation unable to hook up! A culture in collapse due to expediency and passivity. Not an easy fix!
dbsaiya
Japan can't even take care of the children now, let alone trying to push for future babies. High child poverty compared to other western nations, abuse, neglect, bullying, suicide, under funded shelters or facilities, mandatory education only up to jr high, and expensive education just to name a few. The declining birth rate red flag came up over 35 years ago but as always the LDP was only concerned about lining their pockets during the bubble era. They were living it up and just kicked everything down the road and if fell by the wayside; now they're panicking. As always, a day late and a dollar short.
Simon Foston
Nothing much is going to happen about this because the government is too timid and passive to make employers change their working practices or raise salaries to the level that having families becomes financially viable. LDP politicians are only interested in getting re-elected and to do that they only need to court favour with elderly people and employers. Anything else, like actually running the country, is just too difficult and they're not cut out for it.
thelonius
One thing Japan hasn't tried in order to address this issue:
Change the government!!
kokontozai
The following figures show that wages, working hours, gender gap and subjective happiness index are not related to fertility rates.
Fertility rates in Nordic countries:(continuing to decline)
Denmark 1.50, Sweden 1.45, Norway 1.40, Finland 1.26.
Japan should reduce social insurance costs for the elderly and redirect the budget to the young, e.g. give around 10 million yen to those who have their third child.
daikaka
The key driver to reduced marriages is the proliferation of host clubs in recent years, with more and more young women addicted to hosts and carrying tens or hundreds of millions in debt. There need to be more regulations on hosts who are now the top earners in japan with many earning over 100M yen a month, often through illegal means such as international sex trafficking of their indebted customers
kohakuebisu
I'm coming up for 22 years of marriage and I can't remember doing anything with my wife as dictated by the LDP.
Only 15% of Japanese women say they are "very satisfied" with their job. If people, men and women, want to reject marriage, that's up to them, but as a humanist, I want them to do it for something more satisfying. I also want to be a positive decision, not "can't find a partner", "don't have enough money" or "afraid of it interfering with my career". Most full-time working women (and men) never become presidents, managers, directors etc. They start at the bottom and end up a little bit higher than the bottom. Its not much of a "career". Cool people work to live, work is not the end in itself.
https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000086.000013597.html
I'm very grateful for the support my family gets. We would have to tighten our belts without it, resulting in pressure on my marriage and (currently nonexistent) envy and resentment toward couples without children that could easily poison my relationship with our kids. The Japanese government offers extra support for third and later children, and I can guarantee you that this encourages actual parents to have another child. You can contrast this with the UK where child benefit stops at the second child. In a country where many folks separate and remarry, this can mean no support for a child with a new partner.
Ken Holcomb
Many respondents here seem to want to blame the government on the declining birthrate.
To me this is more a citizen problem. A complete lack of national pride and care about the future of one's own country, combined with an apparent serious selfish tendency for not wanting to share one's life with anyone else, is the problem
The shrinking population will be a massive problem in the near future. The government should make a concerted effort to educate the population on the pending results of lower tax income, ie the end of social support programs, higher and higher medical insurance costs, and less money for the government to spend on infrastructure.
Basically the end of a modern Japan as quickly as the country became a "first world" country.
DR TAKAFUMI
Easy solution. Government give love hotel ticket. Check price weekend. Outrageous!
Toshihiro
This has been said many times and I will say it again. Do not expect the public, especially young adults to get married, let alone have kids if they can't even have enough time, energy and money for themselves. Despite how we humans pride ourselves in thinking we're better than animals, remember that we still have physiological needs that take higher priority than other needs up that hierarchy. So long as the lawmakers and the moneymakers continue to look away from how they're working the population into extinction, there won't be any changes in this in the future. At least other countries such as China have countering social phenomena like the Lay Flat movement, Japan should have one too.
Seigi
It should be "for the eighth straight year..."
Geeter Mckluskie
How could it possibly be that the current generation of Japanese from which families had 1-2 kids on average aren't producing as much offspiring as the previous generations in which families had 3-5 kids?
It's a mystery!
Geeter Mckluskie
"Long work hours do not make good bedfellows."
The Japanese worked far longer hours in the 50's and 60's when the birthrate was more than 3 times what it is now.
ebisen
To people replying to my previous message with "yeah, but I have a happy life with my spouse and my X kids" - of course! - but the laws of statistics (which govern these matters) say you can't apply your particular case and extrapolate it over the big picture. Which is obviously very different from your happy case - otherwise we would have better birth numbers..
Strangerland
You didn't ask about the big picture, you asked:
And we gave specific answers to the question you asked.
I would want to do it for the exact reasons I did it - to have a partner to share life with, and enjoy raise children together in a family.
almakukac
I don't undertsand this comment. So you didn't pay the taxes? You didn't pay the road toll? You didn't pay the nursery school and other school tuition? You didn't pay for the clinic (when you and your kids were sick and when your children were born)? Or did you go and protest against the government? Or you simply refused the ridiculuous overtime rules dictated by the law?
If you didn't do any of those things, then yes, basicaly your life was dictated by the LDP. You don't need to thank me for enlightening you.
The sad part is that there are so many people like this commenter who TRULY believes that his life is not dictated by the LDP. SMH. Seriously, how can people be so gullible?
almakukac
I worked in 4 different countries across 3 different continents and I can tell you, Japanese work culture is abhorrent and disgusting. It's just simply toxic and abusive, it makes one want to throw up. And as the recent UN rights group concluded, the Japanese workplace is dismissive of human rights as well.
So maybe Japan could start right there, by starting to acknowledge human dignity. And then, after cleaning the workplace up, then they can expect people to start families in my opinion.
stormcrow
A couple of young Japanese ladies I work with just don't want to get married at all. Apparently, they don't care all that much for Japanese men. Maybe Japanese men need to change a few things about themselves to make marriage to them look more desirable and to have a few children in the process.
Also, the government has been way behind on supporting young families for a very long time. Now they're just throwing money at people to reproduce without thinking at all about housing costs, education costs, health care costs, etc., young families have to deal with.
Speed
As more and more people socialize less and less this trend will continue. Online activities have greatly cut into real life face-to-face interactions. Workplace socializing has dropped significantly and romances there have become a possible minefield of sexual harrassment accusations.
The continual drop in people's purchasing power, the lack of grandparents and non-nuclear family members residing or being close by has also made it tougher to get suport to raise a family and, not to mention, very little permanent immigration.
kurisupisu
Having a child is a massive financial burden.
Japanese people cannot afford to have kids in the current economic climate.
Gene Hennigh
Who would want to bring a child into this world anyway? The very real threat of hydrogen bombs dangle over us all. Climate change might well cook us before a child born today turns 12. The rapid growth of AI threatens all aspects of life from political fakery to the loss of jobs for humans. Japan is on the cutting edge of the source of almost every international problem on earth: reducing the number of people. If we don't do it the bombs, the climate, or technology will.
Strangerland
And our parents had their concerns and fears as well.
Meanwhile, my family is the best thing in my life, and I couldn't imagine having gone through this life without them. My kids will face the issues in their lives, and have fears for their children as well.
piskian
My 10 year old son and I are currently travelling around Tohoku by bus and train.
So many houses abandoned and villages bereft of youngsters.
The old people are so happy to see my son,they rush out and give him snacks and drink.
It's so sad and avoidable.
Strangerland
Yes, friendly old people are sad and should be avoided.
JeffLee
My greatest fear about this is that the govt ends up spending 100s of billions of dollars while producing no results. Then it decides to hike our taxes and cut our healthcare, citing lack of funds.
Phoenixikki
A famous mathematician from where I come from, who's been examining Japan as a case study for years, claims that the population drop problem is exaggerated in the sense that nothing dramatic will happen as Japanese continue to shrink. His idea is that the 127-million was a one-time peak rather than a historical tendency and once the population drops to about 100 million things will be balanced and equalized. His view is that about 100 million is the right sustainable number for Japan.
So, let's first hear alternative opinions and perspectives before blindly believing the media fast food, or did 2020-2023 not teach us anything at all?
Fighto!
All wealthy, highly developed nations have falling fertility rates. Japan is by no means the worst.
It is clear the Japanese people are making a concious decision to depopulate in order to alleviate extreme overcrowding and other issues. The environment will be a big winner - and it will become increasingly easier for future generations to obtain employment opportunities, the school and universities of their choice, vacant hospital beds, seats on trains, and so on. Yes - it really is a win-win.
Actually, no - Japanese people are generally happy about this depopulation.
Fighto!
Phoenixikki -
Whoever he us, he is kind of right. But actually, 80 Million people is the "sweet spot" where the Japanese population will find balance and stability. 100 million is still too high.
Jind
The whole culture from employment, pay, social benefits, balanced lifestyle, childcare etc has to change for people to see some light everyday of their lives.
This is not likely going to happen in Japan.
Redemption
Buyer’s market for sperm every Friday night at the local gaijin pub.
Asiaman7
@Strangerland
The situation might differ for those who live and work inside Japan and thus have to deal with its pressures.
I believe I recall you mentioning earlier that you reside in a very pleasant environment outside Japan. If I’m confusing you with another poster, I apologize.
Strangerland
I didn’t realize my 20+ years of being married in Japan don’t count. My bad.
Garthgoyle
It's great that tourists can come to Japan and be able to afford anything they want to do here.
But for the locals in Japan on the other side, they can't afford much to travel anymore but to stay afloat. Adding a baby to their life would further impact their financial situation, greatly. Things are too dang expensive and salaries are still stuck and the haken system is still a thing. Workplaces don't want women either once they have kids and many places see someone in their 30's looking for a job as nooooooo waaaay thing. Big no no.
The work situations needs to change first if they want people to change their priorities.
TokyoLiving
You think is only Japan??..
In ALL the world for ALL people is so complicated have and rise kids..
Asiaman7
It certainly counts, but your situation is likely not representative of most people in Japan who have relatively low wages and can only dream about accumulating enough in wealth to leave Japan and reside in a pleasant environment in a Western country.
Strangerland
I met my wife when I was an eikaiwa teacher, on relatively low wages. She married me when I was broke, and I don’t forget that.
Seesaw7
I see plenty of Mama chari around with at least one in my neighborhood or nearby. Still not enough birth rate?
Asiaman7
A lot of Japanese women fall for and marry low-paid Eikawa teachers. But a lot don’t stay married to low-paid Eikawa teachers. You got out of it and prospered financially. It’s easy to stay with a rich man!
If you just loved Eikawa teaching, and she then stayed with you throughout a hard life of raising children in poor, cramped accommodations day after day after day, then you might have a story of endearing love.
Strangerland
She stayed with me for the first five years of my company when I made less than I did at eikaiwa. She well deserves to benefit from the good times after supporting me through the difficult ones.
Strangerland
But yeah, ours clearly isn’t endearing love. My bad.
WoodyLee
Getting Married and having children is more and more becoming a thing of the past.
Years a ago people got married for Love and for Benefits,, those who do it for love will carry on and those he did it for Benefits have already figured out many ways to survive and be successful on their own.
Freedom is a precious thing to give away.
virusrex
The adult population in Japan is not mentally insane which completely disqualify your criticism even before addressing it as obvious discrimination.
Wearing masks (as well as other forms of isolation) is a medical intervention that has proven very beneficial in reducing the incidence and complications of covid (not to mention other respiratory infections) so there is nothing wrong with a parent taking care of reducing this risk for the children under her care, this has become specially important with the growing evidence of serious and long lasting health problems for children that had covid.
starpunk
I can see from this picture that Japan is still wrestling with Covid. Yet somehow when we do beat this virus for good, I have this feeling the entire world will have an increase in marriages and/or birthrates everywhere, incl. Japan.
Asiaman7
I realize you’re being facetious, but I’m happy to hear it worked out all the same. We all too often hear the sad stories.
Strangerland
Of course I was. You decided on a narrow scenario that because you assumed I didn't fit meant my love wasn't endearing.
Though I suppose, maybe it isn't. Ours wouldn't make an exciting movie.
Redemption
West Philly? Oakland? East Chicago? Have your lovely pick.
Don't defend the freak show and fanatics.
Chico3
Here's the reality: It's about MONEY.
There's inflation in which just about everything costs more money. Yet, salaries (money needed to buy or obtain things) hasn't gone up much.
Marriage and starting families (having babies) cost money.
It's good that Japan has helped families some (like giving allowances for having kids (Kid's money), giving subsidies in the form of coupons or credits for buying rice, books, educational items, etc., keeping tuition affordable for kid's education, and other things. However, that's after you have kids; not before having them or getting married.
We know the data is there and that it is good to keep us updated. However, while things cost more money, where is the encouragement to start families. I think the younger generation has been wise to look into other areas to make their lives meaningful for themselves as individuals, while putting marriage and family on the back burner.
I'm not putting down the article. I'm just explaining the reality.
Jonathan Prin
Psychologically if you don't become a couple, you will just keep no power to make things better.
Having a partner (no need to be married by the way) and babies makes normal people have superior will to "work" and create more for themselves, whatever the environment. If you keep all for yourself and share so little with others, don't expect others to be nice to you.
That is life. Sharing even if poor brings so much happiness, and naturally babies.
This explains why fertility rate has nothing to do with being rich or poor.
Negative Nancy
In my personal experience, children are not so much of a financial burden, but being married is.
A lot of people have commented on financial reasons for the fall in birthrate, but the fact is that it is much more fun to be single and have the freedom to do as you please. Marriage equates to a commitment to sharing your time, space and finances. If you're marrying later in life, as many people do, then you will be accustomed to having your own time, space and money. It's very difficult to give it up. When you have a girlfriend or boyfriend you get all the fun parts including someone to talk to, someone to share activities with and someone to be intimate with- but eventually they go home and leave you alone.
Geeter Mckluskie
"The situation might differ for those who live and work inside Japan and thus have to deal with its pressures."
I live in Japan and have since 1988. My wife and I have raised 5 kids on my modest teacher's salary with my wife staying home to raise the kids. We've had no issues whatsoever. None of my kids wants for the latest fashions, ski trips etc. or is without a smartphone. University tuition is putting a strain on our finances, but we're managing. I'm sure others can manage one or two kids equally as well.
Chico3
Same with my personal experience. They are investments; investments on their present and future and a family investment. Depending on the family, investments do cost financially; especially as they get older, with jukus, kumon, activities, health and welfare costs, and other costs. You are right that kids are never a burden, but growth investments require financial committments that keep increasing as inflation keeps up while salaries (and any other remunerations) mostly remains stagnant, or not keeping up with inflation.
kohakuebisu
I don't care that much for Japanese women. I married one, but it doesn't mean I like the other ones. Lots of things lots of Japanese women like, e.g. Johnny's jimusho, drive me up the wall. I do not give my wife my salary and get some paltry pocket money in return. That would be a complete nonstarter. My wife going back to her mother's for a month with our newborns was a nonstarter too.
Slagging off the opposite sex based on generalizations is incel behaviour. It's better to get out more and meet real people than wallow in some "all (wo)men are terrible" echo chamber.
Redemption
But a hundred years ago when Japan was dirt poor they were pumping out babies. Women (and men) now have a lot of choices, and getting married and having children is one of many options now.
Ramsey's Kitchen
The data was released as Japan's Diet on Wednesday approved a revision to laws designed to beef up financial support for childrearing parents or those expecting babies, as well as to widen access to childcare services and expand parental leave benefits.
At a time when most young couples mull whether it is worth having one child due to both financial and life balance difficulties here, the best idea oyajis in charge can come up with is to increase child support payments for not the first or even second but for THIRD child ! and widen access to childcare by removing income limits ( ie making it free for the highest earners who are pretty much the only ones who can still afford to have in the first place ).
Clueless doesn't begin to describe the geriatric LDP " decision makers" who came up with this.
Moskollo
They have to focus on help throughout the child’s life, not just at the start. Taxes continue to rise, living costs the same, but kishida’s plans to increase the birthrate all revolve around childless couples-focus and help those that already have them and others will follow..
Stewart Gale
You can’t blame anyone for not wanting to have children in this economic climate.
DanteKH
Not only that the Japanese Government is one of the least supportive from all developed countries, but is is actually part of the Japanese introverted culture. Just go to any club or disco in Japan, you would see boys and girls dancing separately and being to shy and introvert to interact one to another. It's all starting in family, on which their parents got married out of interests, never love, then continuing to school brainwashing that never lets the students think outside the box or be a little different. That and having separate boys and girls school also doesn't help either.
So in the end, it all makes sense.
smithinjapan
Not to worry, men like Kishida are soon to launch a new government dating app that will be a game-changer! Forget about tax breaks for families! Forget about incentives to start one! Forget about pushing for time off for quality of life and raises in pay to allow more freedom to date and enjoy being with others! Forget about trying to stop inflation and the rising costs of things so no one has the money to date or have children! Dating app on the way! These numbers are only going to go up, up, up!!
kohakuebisu
fwiw I think the latest drop in marriages and babies, from 1.4 to 1.2, is down to Covid. We'll still be getting echoes and ripples from that for time to come.
We went to an open day at my son's new senior high the other day, and somewhat disconcertingly, lots of girls were still wearing masks. Many boys wore them at the entrance ceremony back in April, but most of them were maskless now. Yes, I know some folks get hayfever etc. but it's still nice to see people's faces and their smiles. Its actually a non-academic school where about half the kids drop out. Many already have dyed hair and piercings.
kaimycahl
Funny the government knows why people are having children but still do nothing but talk about why! If they know why to solve the why would be implementing reforms to change the mindset of young couples.
Hayashi noted economic instability, difficulties in balancing work and child rearing and other complex factors as main reasons why young people have a hard time deciding to get married or raise children.
kaimycahl
Ok here the problem, EMPLOYMENT + MONEY + CULTURE people need to work and they need money to survive and pay for their basic needs. This seems to be the mindset of why most people are saying they don't want to have children. I have read about the Japanese good times when people had employment for life the bubble area where people were happy partying, traveling having very expensive weddings etc. When that crashed and the money got tight so did the peoples mindset. Once the money flow slowed so did everything else. What use to be jobs for life became part-time or contract work, bonuses got smaller, house hold income became strained so did the mindset of the people they changed. Corporations continued to rake in huge profits but did not pass them off to their employees as things became more expensive the wage increase didn't follow, instead they out paced everything else and this is where the people are now. With the way large and small corporations changing from where a salary man had a job for life to part time/contract the people lost all sense of security with small raises that changed the mindset of those who were married or thinking about getting married to wanting to just enjoy life alone why get married on a small salary and have a child worrying about if they would have a job to support the family. Without the money theirs no honey, the Japanese women are not going to marry a guy who does not have a job they want to marry up not down so their mindset is/was not get married and have children at all when they could just have dinner with friends instead of getting married to a drunken salary man who comes home and complains about his worst days at the office. Money changed the mindset of the people and the security of a job, if the people had decent salaries that can provide and help with the cost of child rearing the place would be probably over populated. People migrate to where the money is, where there is money there is life. Country side vs City the country side is losing its populations the big cities are over populated. Its all about ECONOMICS 101 the Supply and Demand. Its obvious the cost of living is out pacing the peoples earnings. MONEY could solve this problem but it will take a lot of doing for the government to get the large corporation to pay workers a better living wage.
proxy
It is not about money, governments around the world have learned that they can't buy babies.
It is about time, the time demands of kindergartens and schools. When people work 6 days a week, the last thing that they want to do on Sunday is have to go to a school event.
Cut work hours and non-work time sucking obligations and parents will actually enjoy raising children.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Very few people are going to exit just to make society more comfortable. I guess if you made them miserable enough by reducing their pension to zero but I would hope people would catch on to that scheme.
The problem is it won't: they've been promising a robot society for 30 years.