Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday makes his first visit to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, walking a fine line between maintaining a longstanding Moscow alliance while courting closer Western security ties.
Russia is a key supplier of cut-price oil and weapons to India, but its isolation from the West and growing friendship with China have impacted its time-honoured partnership with New Delhi.
The United States and its Western allies have in recent years cultivated ties with India as a bulwark against Beijing and its growing influence in the Asia-Pacific, while also pressuring it to distance itself from Russia.
Modi, who was returned to power last month as leader of the world's most populous country, last visited Russia in 2019 and hosted President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi two years later, weeks before the invasion.
Russia's war in Ukraine has "transformed" ties with India, said Swasti Rao, from a think tank funded by India's defence ministry, the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
"There is no decline in goodwill between India and Russia per se," she said. "But there are challenges that have cropped up.
"These are external factors, which have been strong enough to bring in a paradigm shift in India-Russia bilateral issues," she added.
Nandan Unnikrishnan of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation said the upcoming in-person meeting showed the two sides were looking for ways forward.
"There have been pressures on India, and there have been pressures on the India-Russia relationship," Unnikrishnan said.
"Face-to-face interactions help in working out positions," he added. "I'm sure Mr Modi would like an assessment from Putin on the Ukraine war."
- 'Ship has sailed' -
New Delhi has shied away from explicit condemnation of Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and has abstained on United Nations resolutions censuring Moscow.
But Russia's war in Ukraine has also had a human cost for India.
New Delhi said in February it was pushing Russia to release some of its citizens who had signed up for "support jobs" with the Russian military, following reports some were killed after being forced to fight in Ukraine.
Moscow's deepening ties with Beijing have also raised concerns for New Delhi.
China and India, the world's two most populous nations, are intense rivals competing for strategic influence across South Asia.
India is part of the Quad grouping with the United States, Japan and Australia that positions itself against China's growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.
The United States and the European Union accuse China of selling components and equipment that have strengthened Russia's military industry -- allegations Beijing strenuously denies.
That leaves India with a dilemma.
Their "relationship has to evolve", said Rao.
"Some say India should strongly engage with Russia so it doesn't fall into the lap of China," said Rao. "Others would say, that ship has sailed."
New Delhi and Moscow have forged a tight relationship since the Cold War, and Russia was for a long time India's biggest arms supplier.
But Ukraine has stretched Russia's arms supplies, and India is eyeing other sources -- including growing its own defence industry.
Russia's share of Indian imports of weapons has shrunk considerably in recent years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
It dropped from 76 percent in 2009-13 to 36 percent in 2019-23, SIPRI said, noting France is now a close second, providing 33 percent.
"India has instead looked to Western suppliers, most notably France and the USA, and its own arms industry," SIPRI said, adding that its arms procurement plans "seemingly do not include any Russian options".
- Arms down, oil up -
Rao said the Ukraine war had "accelerated" India's push to diversify its defence purchases.
"The Ukraine war has become one of grinding attrition," she said.
"There are genuine concerns about Russia's export capabilities, and its focus and priorities."
At the same time, India has also become a major buyer of discounted Russian oil, providing a much-needed export market for Moscow after it was cut off from traditional buyers in Europe.
That has dramatically reshaped energy ties, with India saving itself billions of dollars while bolstering Moscow's war coffers.
India's month-on-month imports of Russian crude "increased by eight percent in May, to the highest levels since July 2023", according to commodity tracking data compiled by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
"Russian crude comprised 41 percent of India's total crude imports in May, and with new agreements in place to conduct payments in rubles, the trade might grow significantly," the research centre said.
But this has also resulted in India's trade deficit with Russia rising to a little over $57 billion in the past financial year.
From Moscow, Modi will travel to Vienna for the first visit to the Austrian capital by an Indian leader since Indira Gandhi in 1983.
© 2024 AFP
17 Comments
2020hindsights
Sellout Modi.
PTownsend
I'm a bit surprised Modi has not spent more time with Putin, given they they are both authoritarians. India has sold lots of weapons to Russia backing Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Because so many people from South Asia are being affected by climate change and lack of opportunities, many are doing what they can to get to 'western' countries where they have more chances; will Russia take in those fleeing India, or would there be opportunities in Russia beyond serving in Putin's military and being fodder for the next Russian invasions.
ok1517
"Moodi", another one like Orban!
Appeasing Putain, expecting to get something in return.
But the distance between India and Ukraine is still further than the one between Hung(ar)y and Ukraine.
So, what does "Moodi" expect? A couple of rubbels, worth nothing, some frozen fish or firewood?
Moonraker
Another rightist, nationalist you cannot trust.
itsonlyrocknroll
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hypocrisy, betrayal of Ukraine, its people, India energy security totally dependent on Moscow cheap energy is truly treacherous self-serving.
Narendra Modi is financing the war, the death and destruction in Ukraine.
TokyoLiving
Well done Modi..
BRICS united, BRICS stronger..
GuruMick
Playing poker with a Royal Flush, or four aces.
Look how India can leverage/play off other major nations to better itself.
And USA, you have ignored India, a growing economic powerhouse for ever, it seems....now a little to late.
TaiwanIsNotChina
They like the cheap weaponry. It's understandable. There will be no serious discussion of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
stormcrow
It is disturbing to say the least to see well over half of the world's (China, India & Russia), etc. population swinging in this direction in concert with one another. Peace is the way, certainly not this.
Is India now a democracy in the same way Russia is supposed to be one?
TaiwanIsNotChina
India will never be on the side of China. We already have the trade agreements we need with India.
PTownsend
Perhaps the nation, but millions of Indian individuals have gotten out of India, have come to the USA where they have prospered, and brought their families with them. Will Russia be able to provide similar opportunities to those fleeing India and other BRIC nations as climate change continues to take its tolls. If Modi gets cheap oil and gas from Russia, will their burning create more environmental problems resulting in more Indians seeking other nations to escape to. The Indian brain drain to the US has been greatly beneficial to the US and other nations, especially in healthcare, technology and the sciences.
JJE
Always Welcome to Moscow. Modi isn't an actor who hijacked his country.
Certain quarters have been trying sabotage the relationship with subterfuge and the usual bluster of threats of sanctions. Quite frankly, everyone has had enough of this high-hatted conduct.
What that ignores is the actual honesty, decency and goodwill between the USSR and independent India over many decades - moreover the fact that they are neutral and a leading member of the Non-Aligned Movement - which now Russia respects.
Observing neutrality is quite the positive thing that other quarters are now experiencing to their detriment. That is a key takeaway. Silver lining is the prize of some reliable energy too. Win-win situation for everyone involved here.
JJE
And Modi isn't the only guy making a trip to Moscow just recently. Check it out.
JJE
The strategic counter-offensive launched in Feb of 2022 was defensive in nature against encroaching and aggressive bloc expansionism in violation of agreements to refrain from such conduct on the former territory of the USSR. The 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict - in which Moscow was attacked by proxy - was the curtain raiser. It opened a Pandora's box directly leading to the current police action.
New Delhi and most other reasonable observers understand the facts underpinning the wider picture. It's a very important and mature distinction to make.
bass4funk
?
According to whom?
Seems like it is
But Zelenskyy is an honest man? Righteous and decent?
Dunno, people are believing a lot of things, some of those beliefs should be questioned.
Pukey2
Lots of crying on JT today. Modi was everyone's favorite guy last year. Now, he's hated. Hot and cold.
He's useful against China one day. Next day, it's human rights. The west can't make up it's mind.
Norm
This is on-topic. :)