Incumbent Yuriko Koike's victory in the Tokyo gubernatorial election Sunday ends a winning streak in recent elections for the main opposition party, which had supported former lawmaker Renho, dashing its hopes of further ramping up the pressure on Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
A surge in support among swing voters for non-affiliated Shinji Ishimaru, the social media-savvy former mayor of a small city in Hiroshima Prefecture, may also prompt political parties to review their strategies for future elections.
A triumph for Renho would have signaled a serious weakening of support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and might have sparked moves to quickly replace Kishida amid continuing speculation that he plans to dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap election at an early date.
But while the victory by Koike, effectively backed by the LDP, has made such a scenario less likely, Kishida is still expected to face a tough battle in its upcoming party leadership race in September as a slush funds scandal has driven down support for the ruling party, pundits said.
Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, believed to be popular among the public, could pose a significant threat to Kishida's chances of being reelected. But with bitterness remaining over his brief defection from the party in the 1990s, Ishiba could fail to win sufficient backing.
Since the political fundraising scandal was revealed late last year, the LDP has been under heavy scrutiny, with its support rates plunging to their lowest levels since it returned to power in December 2012 after a short period in opposition.
With the scandal undermining public trust in the LDP, the party refrained from fielding its own candidate in this year's Tokyo gubernatorial election, instead backing Koike together with its junior coalition partner the Komeito party.
Koike, a former LDP member, became Tokyo's first female leader in 2016. Later, she established her own regional political party called Tomin First no Kai, adopting an antagonistic stance toward the LDP.
Nevertheless, Koike has gradually extended an olive branch to the LDP, the largest force in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, hoping to consolidate her power base as her popularity recedes after eight years in power.
Renho's loss, meanwhile, is a major blow to the leading opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan as it looks to seize power from the LDP, even though it took three seats in lower house by-elections in April from the ruling party.
Ishimaru's use of social media with YouTube posts featuring fierce exchanges with municipal assembly members from his time as a mayor appears to have been enough to overhaul Renho in the final stages of the campaign.
Hiroshi Ogushi, the head of the election strategy committee of the CDPJ, said Sunday's outcome was "very harsh," acknowledging that the party failed to gain support from swing voters against a backdrop of Ishimaru's rising momentum.
Masahiro Iwasaki, a political science professor at Nihon University, said the defeat of Renho showed that it is "unrealistic" to expect the CDPJ to defeat the LDP at the national level.
Within the LDP, meanwhile, a growing number of its lawmakers, particularly those who are concerned they might lose their seats in an election, have begun to openly voice their dissatisfaction with Kishida, who assumed office in October 2021, for his handling of the slush funds scandal.
While Kishida has indicated he hopes to win reelection as party chief in September, some within the party hope for Ishiba to take over before a general election, which must be held by October 2025.
Late last month, a Kyodo News opinion poll showed only 10.4 percent of respondents want Kishida to win the LDP's next presidential race. Ishiba, a former LDP secretary general, is seen as the most suitable replacement, with 26.2 percent supporting him.
But Ishiba, who is soft-spoken but a security hawk, has struggled to garner adequate backing from party lawmakers due to his leaving it in a bid to topple the then LDP-led government in 1993, causing some members to label him a "renegade."
Since returning to the party in 1997, the 12th-term lower house lawmaker has run in the LDP leadership race unsuccessfully four times. He was regarded as a vocal critic of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in July 2022.
Political analyst Norio Toyoshima said the LDP has historically implemented "intraparty regime change" by appointing a new leader who can attract voters during times of crisis, particularly in the run-up to national elections.
Ishiba is rumored to be one of the preferred candidates of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Kishida's predecessor and still a powerbroker in the LDP, who has recently urged the incumbent to consider stepping down to take responsibility for the slush funds scandal.
Other potential candidates include LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, Digital Minister Taro Kono and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, known for sharing Abe's hawkish stance, with China criticizing her as a "right-wing" nationalist.
Former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, a relatively young lower house member, has also emerged as a dark horse, with some in the party believing the former Finance Ministry bureaucrat could help give the impression that the LDP has turned a new leaf.
© KYODO
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