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Do you believe China will try to retake Taiwan by force one day?
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Jordi Puentealto
I hope not, but surely China will keep on with its claim, and keep on trying.
Toshihiro
China will surely try one day when the timing is right. We should never underestimate the determination and patience of the Chinese, especially at a time when their head of state can sit in power indefinitely. Whether they do it by military force or through other means, that is up for debate. Whether they succeed or flounder is another discussion altogether. All we know is if Taiwan falls, it won't stop China from getting greedy and start claiming other parts of its periphery citing historical records.
deanzaZZR
"and that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa, and The Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China." Cairo Declaration
Now that the PRC represents China in the United Nations the island of Taiwan will be restored to China inevitably.
Seigi
This is the narrative that the West wants to project in order to destabilize Asia, and for Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines to depend on US military support, buy weapons from US and to patronize anything American. Yes, China can be annoying, but they didn't have a history of killing millions of Filipinos during the Philippine-American war of 1890s, and millions of Vietnamese during the Vietnam War. Not to mention, the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. None of these horrible human atrocities had Chinese influence on them. But yeah, demonizing China seems like a convenient thing to do these days...
TaiwanIsNotChina
They definitely want to. All depends on the US having the strength to deter.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Did they just leave the "People's" part out? It was returned to the Republic of China.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Was China a major player in killing Vietnamese during the Vietnam War and Koreans during the Korean War? Why yes, yes it was. Also quite good at killing people domestically.
isabelle
If Xi thought he could take Taiwan he would've invaded by now, but I don't believe he does, due to (at least):
1) Almost certain US military response, with (at least) logistical support from Japan and the Philippines, and other support from other nations, including NATO intelligence/expertise.
Win or lose, a war would be devastating for China and everyone else. It would put Xi in a precarious position, possibly to be overthrown by the many opponents that surround him (Xi's number one aim is to stay in power, not take Taiwan per se)
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
2) Massive sanctions that would devastate China's economy, again putting Xi in a precarious position
3) Huge lack of confidence in the PLA, it being completely untested in battle and highly untrustworthy due to massive corruption (hence all the mysterious disappearances of high officials, such as Li Shangfu and the Rocket Force commanders)
Xi would be a fool to invade. That said, we can't rule it out as he is a dictator, and dictators can do foolish/self-defeating things (like Putin invading Ukraine). Ideally, he will be deposed by someone more reasonable before this can happen.
isabelle
Your information is incomplete (and possibly willfully misleading).
...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1943_Cairo_Declaration#Controversy_as_to_Taiwan
However, the major political parties in Taiwan have not taken the same position on this matter,[5] and various historians in Taiwan have also said that the Cairo Declaration was not a binding treaty.[6] The government of the U.S. considers the declaration a statement of intention and never formally implemented or executed.[7]
In November 1950, the United States Department of State announced that no formal act restoring sovereignty over Formosa and the Pescadores to China had yet occurred;[8] In February 1955, Winston Churchill said that Cairo Declaration is out of date. Speaking in the House of Commons, Churchill stated that the Cairo Declaration "contained merely a statement of common purpose" and the question of Taiwan's future sovereignty was left undetermined by the Japanese peace treaty.[9][10] British officials reiterated this viewpoint in May 1955, saying that "The Chinese Nationalists began a military occupation of Formosa and the Pescadores in 1945. However, these areas were under Japanese sovereignty until 1952." and that
[The Cairo Declaration] was couched in the form of a statement of intention, and as it was merely a statement of intention, it is merely binding in so far as it states the intent at that time, and therefore it cannot by itself transfer sovereignty.[11]
Jind
China does not need to do anything.
After the fighting I saw last week in the chambers in Taiwan, which is a common occurrence, Taiwan will take itself down. No help needed.
deanzaZZR
This is a problem of the Anglo-Saxon nations not the Chinese on both side of the Strait of Taiwan who of course celebrated the return of the island of Taiwan to the Chinese nation.
TokyoOldMan
Xi has stated that he will take back Taiwan. It’s not a matter of “if” but, “When”.
Kalinikos
It's the same thing Russia is doing to Ukraine...!
Nothing new here!
TaiwanIsNotChina
Guess it is good thing taking Taiwan will be much harder.
stormcrow
Not by force, but perhaps by blockade. That would be less violent and probably more effective.
However, the international community’s reaction would be another story, and China doesn’t want that.
The best thing would be a gradual unification of 2 democracies with a common vision. Before that happens, though, mainland China will have to give up its communist dictatorship.
isabelle
There's an error in the title of the article.
China is now run by the CCP, and the CCP has never ruled Taiwan, so the current China cannot "retake" Taiwan. It could only "take" (that is, illegally annex) it, unless the people of democratic Taiwan agree to be ruled by the CCP. Which they will never do, as they're not insane.
isabelle
Not at all. The (non-Anglo-Saxon) people of Taiwan made their peace with Japan in 1952 via the Treaty of Taipei.
Even though this treaty is no longer in force, I think we can safely assume that the people of Taiwan do not want to be part of the PRC, as otherwise they would've joined the PRC some time in the intervening period. There is, furthermore, virtually no support for this now (as I'm sure you are aware), and what support there is is steadily dropping.
deanzaZZR
Let's look at a timeline, shall we.
1945: USA occupies Japan (remains until 1952)
November 1949: Establishment of People's Republic of China in Beijing
December 1949: Chiang Kai-shek retreats to the island of Taiwan
1951: Treaty of San Francisco signed with no Chinese representative
1972: Joint Communique of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China, Japan recognizes the PRC as the sole legal government of China
1945 - present: USA meddling in internal affairs of the Chinese nation
Abe234
There are only a few reason why China would build 3 aircraft carriers, with the possibility of a fourth , an increase the size of the navy, building newer more capable landing craft. And it’s not for cruising. Along with the slow, island building, we are letting China build itself new land. And maybe Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia et al might want to consider “building islands otherwise they are passively ceding the sea to China. And for “some” possession is 9/10s of the law. Xi will take it in is lifetime. That’s what he wants, he just has to bid his time, wait for European countries or the US to go a little “oh but our economy”. Money will decide Taiwans fate. I think! I hope I’m wrong though.
Abe234
deanzaZZR
You could also add the acceptance of the one China policy. The removal of US troops from Taiwan. The disenfranchisement of Taiwan in international bodies. The slow removal of international recognition.
TaiwanIsNotChina
The UK has made some mistakes in its history, no doubt.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Plenty of international backstabbing involved with all of that. The US tried to get Taiwan reinstated as a non-security council member but scummy countries wouldn't have it.
albaleo
I think one important stage was the introduction of free elections in Taiwan and the election of a DPP president. Self determination of peoples and all that.
As for the question, I really don't know. I hope not.
Asiaman7
Jingoistic comments like this simply exacerbate tensions with Asian neighbors and within the Asian community. They tear down instead of build. They push away instead of bring together. They serve no constructive purpose.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Plenty of non-Asian countries involved in that, but while we are on the topic, nobody should have to choose between Free Taiwan and representation with the PRC, such as it is.
CaptDingleheimer
Probably not.
If they did, they'd face some serious, serious sanctions. These sanctions would likely put many tens of millions of Chinese out of work, Chinese who have become quite content in the newly-created middle class.
Those masses losing their jobs, especially by way of a government action, would create some serious unrest. If there's one thing an authoritarian government fears above all else, it's civil unrest.
...and we all saw how fast the "big tough" Chinese government backed down under the relatively light level of unrest surrounding the demand of the end to Covid lockdowns.
Moonraker
If the Taiwanese don't want to be part of the PRC then that should be the end of it. The trouble is, any referendum on that would involve China threatening trouble if the vote was for no subjugation (for let's be under no illusions, after seeing what has happened in Hong Kong, that Taiwan would be subjugated, whatever lies China told). China resembles a stalker of Taiwan really.
Quo Primum
No.
Beijing would have done it by now, and they have had ample opportunity under previous and current U.S. presidential leadership (Clinton, Obama, Biden).
They'll huff and puff and talk tough about it, but in the end, it's just not worth it to them. The economic and possibly military ramifications would be too large to risk it.
Quo Primum
I meant to say, under previous and current weak U.S. presidential leadership.
Sven Asai
I guess that's in their doctrines, isn't it? Maybe it is even written explicitly anywhere, but I don't know enough Chinese and also don't have access to such books or documents. At least it's a final solution in their eyes, if Taiwan doesn't come otherwise incidentally , to be assimilated more peacefully. On the contrary, I also have heard several voices, that Taiwan isn't worth the risks and efforts, and instead they go militarily for former areas in Siberia, if not even taking it as a whole. All of those scenarios are speculation anyway. No one knows, until it just happens.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Nothing is weaker than contemplating closing US bases in Japan.
Anonymous
I think your numbers are a little off. It was bamboozlions of Filipinos and Vietnamese.
Mr Kipling
No, don't fall for the blatant anti Chinese propaganda in the Western press and on this site.
The US, China and all serious military analysts will tell you that Taiwan is too far for a naval assault so even if China wanted to they couldn't.
Moonraker
Ah, ok then. China is just misunderstood, right? It thinks only of benevolence and love towards the world. No thought of, like, imposing itself on others. Got it.
WatanabeBuddha
I think they will engage in a movement similar to Hong Kong. There will be an effort to replace the Taiwanese population through immigration and high birth rates (similar to Muslims in South Asia and Europe), along with emigration of Taiwanese to locations with higher paying jobs. They will then get the Mainland Chinese to vote in a government that allows deeper security ties between China and Taiwan.
noriahojanen
Do you believe China will try to retake Taiwan by force one day?
It's not at all the future outlook, but ongoing development. China has since long been trying, is trying now, and will surely try to invade Taiwan .... to no avail :)
smithinjapan
Yes, I dod, and the world will do nothing about it but "sternly" rebuke China for it.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Rows of clowns in suits dutifully applauding is an obscenity. This is indeed much better and considering there are some in Taiwan proposing surrender overtly or covertly, understandable.
itsonlyrocknroll
Yes, the government of China has unequivocally stated so.
China's Xi says 'reunification' with Taiwan is inevitable
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-calls-taiwan-president-frontrunner-destroyer-peace-2023-12-31/
By military force if necessary, It has never been a question of if but when.
The government of China seizing control of the Taiwan Strait will bring global conflict
Map Shows Why Taiwan Is So Important to the World
https://www.newsweek.com/map-taiwan-maritime-traffic-1860121
commanteer
Nothing about the future is "inevitable", even for Xi. I think he wants to make taking Taiwan part of his legacy - and he will use force if he feels that's the only way to do it before he dies. However, there's always the chance that he might die sooner than he expects, or even be deposed by CCP rivals. Or something else, like civil disorder, might happen to foil his plans. Life is filled with surprises.
That's why I think the smartest thing for Taiwan to do is to drag it out. They way Xi is reversing China's progress, Taiwan might be taking over China in another 15 years.
Ah_so
Perhaps I don't understand the logistics, but this doesn't sound very realistic.
Okinawa was even further from the USA, but they managed it. In 1982, Britain led a naval assault to recapture the Falklands Islands, which was far further than Taiwan.
stickman1760
Yes, because there is no limit to their greed.
Kabukilover
There is one thing more important to red China than Taiwan--trade.
runner3
Only if Trump's in power.